We're only four weeks in, but 2017 has certainly been a topsy-turvy season so far. Just a month ago, many fans were talking about the chances of New England going 16-0; now the Patriots are just 2-2 and somehow tied in the standings with the New York Jets. Other powerful teams from last year have also gotten off to 2-2 starts, including Dallas, Oakland and Seattle.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are the last undefeated team despite cutting their No. 1 receiver in the offseason and losing their best defensive player to an Achilles tendon tear in Week 1. Even more shocking are the 3-1 starts from the Los Angeles Rams, who had one of the worst offenses in history a year ago, and the Buffalo Bills, who haven't made the playoffs this century.
How likely are the Chiefs to finish the job and win their first Super Bowl in almost 50 years? What are the Bills' chances of finally ending their long playoff drought? We can figure out those odds by going beyond just looking at each team's record after four games. It's important to consider just how well a team has played so far, based on a play-by-play breakdown rather than just the binary stat of wins and losses. We want to consider what we knew about how good a team was going into this year. We should also consider injuries as well as the schedule each team has yet to face, which is harder for some teams than others.