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Insider

NFL win projections that differ most from Vegas odds

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Yates expecting Lacy, Phillips to have big impacts in NFC West (1:56)

Field Yates examines how Eddie Lacy and Wade Phillips will affect the Seahawks and Rams, respectively. (1:56)

One of the most interesting elements of constructing a statistical projection is trying to figure out where your outliers are and how they got there. While Football Outsiders labors over our annual NFL forecast, sometimes even we think the projections are a bit off. Then again, sometimes when they look off, they turn out to be pretty right on. This time last year, we were writing about how low we were on the Carolina Panthers, how high we were on the Tennessee Titans and how we thought the Detroit Lions had a chance at the NFC North.

So, in that spirit, let's look at the four teams for which our projections differ the most from the conventional wisdom. These are the four teams that sportsbooks in Vegas have given win total over/unders that are more than two wins removed from our projections.