Giant Killers: Which teams can pull off an upset?

Giant Killers is back for our 13th annual metrics-based forecast of big upsets in the NCAA tournament. As usual, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the first round. (Quick reminder. A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)

Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game, based on both the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have most often led to tournament upsets in the past. As always, we've sorted our picks into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. (Those titles should be self-explanatory.)

Got that? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here are the upsets in the making: