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Jayski: Weather Updates for Bristol

Latest update from weather.com for Bristol
Monday afternoon: Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 62F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Monday evening: Showers early, then cloudy overnight. Low 53F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

AND check out Jayski.com's Bristol Race Info page - weather link section

ORIGINAL NASCAR has had a good run of seven weeks of mostly rain free weather. The only exceptions were the Clash at Daytona, a non points race, and the Friday at Martinsville where practice and qualifying were both washed out. It appears the dry weather luck runs out at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend.

Forecasting the weather around Bristol Motor Speedway is always complicated, especially when you are dealing with the terrain around the track. The mountains and hills that make up the region can give meteorologist's fit. While we expect rain showers and storms to fall during the weekend not every moment of every day is soaking wet. We expect some dry time as we go through the weekend. The question is, which days are drier than the others?

Friday morning could be mostly dry as rain activity will increase into the afternoon and evening. This as a cold front works into eastern Tennessee Friday afternoon and evening.
The same front lifts northward allowing for more moisture to spill in on Saturday. Saturday will feature more scattered "hit or miss" type showers and storms during the day with an increase in showers and storms late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The odds of racing the Xfinity race Saturday afternoon is around 50 to 60 percent with possible delays due to the weather.

The main weather event is a storm system moving in over the region Saturday night into Sunday. While timing looks to bring a cold front and storm center through sometimes Sunday morning, there is a possibility of lingering rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon. This is a more complicated forecast. I definitely expect some delays for Sunday but the big question is will NASCAR postpone Sunday's race to Monday or will it dry out enough to race on Sunday night. Those decisions are not up to me. While I am not calling Sunday a wash my current odds of racing the Monster Energy Cup Series Food City 500 is around 40 to 50 percent. Timing and how much lingering precipitation we have Sunday afternoon will be the biggest deciding factor. Personally, if I was going Sunday to Bristol - I'd have a Monday backup plan.

--- see full post and forecasts at SB Nation / Brian Neudorff ---


UPDATE

The weather forecast for Sunday's Food City 500 Monster Energy Cup series race at Bristol Motor Speedway gets wetter as we get closer to race day. Thursday I had the odds of racing closer to 30 percent but with two days worth of weather date, I'd say the odds of us seeing racing Sunday afternoon and night is 20 percent or less.

Cup series practice starts early Saturday morning around 8:30 a.m. ET and while there is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, most of the morning looks dry. It's not until the afternoon for the Xfinity Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300 at 1 p.m. we see an increased chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms. I am going to keep the odds of racing Saturday afternoon between 50 to 60 percent. Just remember that means I think there is a 40 to 50 percent chance of a delay or even a postponement of the race. It just takes one poorly timed and located shower or storm to ruin the afternoon.

Storm system moves into eastern Tennessee Saturday night into Sunday and slowly pushes through. Keyword here is slowly. From everything I've seen for the last 24 to 30 hours has this system keeping rain over Bristol Motor Speedway from Sunday morning, into Sunday afternoon and evening. It's looking more and more like Sunday's race could be a washout. Again my odds of racing Sunday is 20 percent or less. If I was going I'd hope for the weatherman to be wrong but prepared for a Monday race.

Please follow Brian on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like him on Facebook for the latest NASCAR weather updates.

--- see full UPDATE and forecasts at SB Nation / Brian Neudorff and another update at Bristol NASCAR race day weather forecast: Wet all day (and night) Sunday by Brian Neudorff ---

AND check out Jayski.com's Bristol Race Info page - weather link section