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Top Vegas/FPI disagreements of college football Week 5

Mark Richt and Miami have been solid, but are they a touchdown better than Duke? Logan Bowles/USA TODAY Sports

While the betting markets and college FPI often have similar opinions about the odds of many college football games, every week there are a few cases where ESPN's model starkly disagrees with Vegas. Each week, we'll dive into what is causing that difference. (All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.)


Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils

Vegas line: Hurricanes by 6.5

FPI prediction: Blue Devils by 1.7

This prediction really is no disrespect to Miami. FPI gave the Hurricanes a decent amount of love entering the season, ranking them 18th before a game had been played. A couple of solid, but expected, wins over lesser teams later, the model has kept its rating of Miami roughly consistent.

But Duke is another story. More specifically, Duke's defense is another story.