How MLB teams fared against Vegas win totals

Despite a lofty win total of 94.5, Dave Roberts and the Dodgers still managed to exceed expectations. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

It took until the last day of the season to decide the final two over/under total wins verdicts for the season, and when the dust settled, overs took the season by a 16-14 margin. By league, there were 8 unders vs. 7 overs in the National League, leaving American League overs with a 9-6 edge.

Here's a final look at each team's results, grouped by division.

National League East

Washington Nationals, Over 91

Washington suffered major injuries to Adam Eaton, Trea Turner and most significantly Bryce Harper -- on an MVP-caliber season pace -- and still cruised to over 91 wins. With a roster loaded with talent at the plate and on the mound, the team drove on despite those injuries ... playing in a division where no other team came close to finishing above .500 was a huge help, too.

Miami Marlins, Over 76.5

There was a real chance the Nationals would be the only team in the division to go over their total, but the Marlins did just enough to clear their total by one-half game. In other words, Miami backers needed every one of Giancarlo Stanton's 59 home runs to cash their tickets.

Atlanta Braves, Under 74.5

Playing in a new stadium with a mix of veterans and youngsters proved to be a formula for overachievement for roughly half the season. With a .500 record after 90 games, a finish above expectations looked probable, but it didn't turned out that way. Atlanta finished a miserable last two months by dropping seven of eight games during the final week of the season, ensuring the under finish.

New York Mets, Under 88.5

The Mets were one of two teams that didn't even make it to September before their "under" fate was sealed. Injuries to the starting rotation, horrendous defense, and overall staff ineffectiveness had the Mets in the running to allow the most runs in the National League, ultimately finishing just shy of the Reds in that category. Incredibly, given the massive gap in their respective March pricing, they had a worse run differential than the Phillies to the tune of 36 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies, Under 72.5

The Giants "came from ahead" to wrest the worst record in the National League from the Phillies but all was not gloomy at year-end. While the under was never really in doubt all year, by about the time it was sewn up, the entire outlook for Phillies fans changed with the call-up of rookie slugger Rhys Hoskins. A threat to lead the team in WAR despite playing less than a third of the season, Hoskins' presence means an under call might not be so easy in 2018.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs, Under 95.5

With all the attention paid to the Dodgers (when it looked like they might post a historically great win/loss record) and then the Indians (during their historic winning streak), it was easy to miss how very 2016-like the Cubs were during the second half. Very high expectations combined with weak hitting and a leaky defense in the first half of 2017 cemented the under finish, but the defending champs may be flying under the radar as the playoffs begin.

Milwaukee Brewers, Over 69.5

When the list of National League haves and have-nots was compiled this spring, no one had the Brewers as a contender for a postseason berth, but they remained in the mix for both the NL Central crown and a wild card all season. The rotation provided huge upside versus expectations as four different hurlers who have made more than 10 starts all have ERAs under 3.90, which is spectacular in a National League where the average starter has a 4.44 ERA. That performance allowed anyone holding a Brewers over ticket to cash it while the calendar still read August.

St. Louis Cardinals, Under 84

It's not hard to make a case that the Cardinals outplayed the Brewers this season. Milwaukee finished over the Cardinals' total, so why didn't St. Louis? A combination of bad luck and decidedly unclutch performances played co-starring roles, but in truth the Cards have no one to blame but themselves for going home this October. St. Louis squandered its NL Central chances this season because of a 5-14 record against the Cubs and an 8-11 mark against the Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 82

Andrew McCutchen returned to playoff-caliber form but the rest of the lineup was a disappointment, and the loss of Starling Marte to a PED suspension for half the season certainly didn't help. Pirates fans probably wanted to see more upside from the largely homegrown rotation, but it was stable and efficient all year (except Tyler Glasnow). A better staff may be needed to compete for a postseason berth but blame for finishing under .500 falls almost entirely on the offense which ranked 28th in runs scored.

Cincinnati Reds, Under 70.5

Dark horse MVP candidate Joey Votto was as great as ever, raising the offense to roughly average levels. On the other side of the ledger, though, the Reds gave up the most runs in the National League ... leaving them a couple games away from preseason expectations.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 94.5

Considering the way they ended the season, it's easy to forget that the Dodgers won more games than any team since the 2004 Cardinals won 105. In other words, an easy over.

Arizona Diamondbacks, Over 77.5

The Diamondbacks, not the more vaunted Nationals, had the second-best ERA in the National League in 2017, and they finished within shouting distance of the Cleveland Indians for the second-best starting rotation ERA in MLB. With a rotation that good backed by an extremely potent lineup, this is a very dangerous team to play in October. Coming off of last year's disappointment, expectations were lower this year and Arizona soared past the over hurdle in early September.

Colorado Rockies, Over 80.5

The Rockies got off to a hot start and maintained playoff pace all year as a result of their potent ... pitching staff? It doesn't really show up in the runs allowed rankings, but when you adjust for Coors Field, it's the improvement of both the rotation and the bullpen that turned Colorado into a playoff participant. This was another easy over for bullish Rockies fans.

San Diego Padres, Over 67.5

Notice a pattern here? One after another, NL West teams clinched their "over" status in mid-September thanks to the implosion of their division mates, the Giants. In fact, San Diego's 11-5 record against the Giants is largely responsible for the over result. Unlike the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks, which all took steps indicative of a team whose improvement could carry over to future years, the Padres still have glaring weaknesses, despite some new faces. Petco may no longer be the offensive mausoleum it was in years past, but despite hitting a lot of home runs, the Padres still finished last in the majors in runs scored because they were last in the majors in getting on base. Once again, this is a team that can't get on base even three out of 10 plate appearances, which is not a formula to cash over tickets. Those doing so this year are fortunate.

San Francisco Giants, Under 87.5

On May 31, the Giants were playing .400 baseball, essentially taking all of the drama out of this result before summer officially started. By the All-Star break it was clear the team needed to rethink its roster construction in an environment where the average MLB team is going to hit 200 home runs. The only question left was how early the under would clinch and the answer was Aug. 19 when San Francisco lost its 75th game. It's the earliest date I have for clinching in at least seven years.

American League East

Boston Red Sox, Over 92.5

The Red Sox hit the over, but only by one-half of a game. A number of teams were left behind by teams participating in the record amount of home runs hit this season, but unlike the teams surrounding them at the bottom of the league's home run leaderboard, the Red Sox not only beat expectations ... they won their division. They will provide a fun case study to see if the lack of power can translate into postseason success in 2017.

New York Yankees, Over 83

Bettors who were bullish on the Yankees outlook in March were unlucky to have to wait until the last two weeks of the season to cash a ticket that didn't ask New York to do much more than finish over .500. The Yankees had the second-best run differential in baseball -- one suggestive of a 100-win team. An 18-26 record in one-run games, despite a stellar bullpen, led to a deceiving record. Yankees fans will hope the close-game luck turns in October.

Tampa Bay Rays, Over 78.5

A four-game winning streak to end the season rewarded Rays backers. Once again though, the Rays appear to be facing a tough future with the Red Sox and Yankees now among the younger teams in baseball and more than 10 games better in 2017.

Toronto Blue Jays, Under 85.5

Unlike the teams that they finished behind, the Blue Jays are not young and it caught up with them this year. The average age, weighted by at-bats, of Toronto's everyday players has increased every year since 2012 and this year it's the oldest in baseball at 30.8 years, per Baseball-Reference. Toronto has experienced a plunge in offensive production since the team crossed the 30.0-year-old mark last season. The Blue Jays scored 891 runs in 2015 and even as scoring has surged league-wide since then, they scored nearly 200 fewer runs this season.

Baltimore Orioles, Under 80

The changing power dynamic in baseball caught up with the Orioles. The average MLB team hit 200 home runs this year and Baltimore was right there with the leaders all season, just as they were in 2014 and 2016. The difference this year is that the rest of the league is catching up and 230 home runs doesn't provide nearly the competitive advantage that 211 home runs provided in 2014. Thus, the Orioles weren't able to paper over their poor rotation. A negative run differential of -98 resulted and it suggests the Orioles are about to enter a long period of losing.

American League Central

Cleveland Indians, Over 93.5

Sabermetric types suspected all year that the Indians were much better than the team that struggled for the better part of five months to put meaningful distance between itself and either the Twins or Royals. Of course, an American League-record winning streak changed all that and the defending American League pennant winners are the betting favorites to win the whole thing this year.

Minnesota Twins, Over 74

If the Brewers were the feel-good team in the National League, the Twins, by virtue of making the playoffs, get to wear that mantle for all of baseball. In fact, the Twins may be built for more long-term success because they haven't hit on all cylinders this year. The rotation has huge holes once it hits the No. 3 spot, and the bullpen allows runs at a rate in excess of all but six teams. It's possible they wouldn't be favored in a single playoff game they might play in -- including any played at home -- but the offense is filled with exciting young talent that easily exceeded 2017 expectations that are sure be set higher next year.

Kansas City Royals, Over 77

The swan song season for a number of players who led the Royals to two American League pennants, including a World Series title in 2015, exceeded expectations. However, with a -89 run differential suggesting a low 70s-win team, and a lot of roster turnover coming in 2018, the Royals may have one of the lowest total wins marks next season.

Chicago White Sox, Under 70

While it might be the Royals next year, this season the White Sox had the lowest total wins mark in the American League and they still fell short of that hurdle by three games. Chicago entered the season in sell mode and continued down that strategic path throughout the season. As such, their finish surprises no one.

Detroit Tigers, Under 83

Detroit's bounce back in 2016 to 86 wins after a last-place AL Central finish in 2015 tricked management, and perhaps oddsmakers, into thinking the core of the dominant 2011-2014 squads still existed. It didn't and management abandoned that thinking in-season by trading away big names on both sides of the ledger. The team that started the season with Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez gets the number one pick in the 2018 draft.

American League West

Houston Astros, Over 89.5

It took a 22-game winning streak from Cleveland to bump the Astros from the No. 1 seed in the American League, but Houston still cruised over its March expectations and looks like a very formidable potential foe for the Indians.

Los Angeles Angels, Over 79

The Angels' total wins fate didn't get decided until the 27th out of game 162. With a win in that last contest, the Los Angeles went over 79 wins and became the only team in baseball this season to finish with a losing record and a positive run differential.

Seattle Mariners, Under 86.5

Another disappointing Mariners season came to a close and it marks another year Felix Hernandez remains the best player this century to have never played in the postseason. The Mariners hovered around .500 for much of the season and while the offensive production was balanced throughout the lineup it was never going to be enough to overcome a rotation decimated by injuries. Seattle had 17 different pitchers start a game for them and that fact alone will doom any team's effort to finish above .500.

Texas Rangers, Under 84.5

Any chance the Rangers had to finish above .500 and reward over bettors ended with the trading of Yu Darvish (and to a lesser extent Jonathan Lucroy), which signified the waving of the white flag on the season.

Oakland Athletics, Over 73.5

Not too many may have noticed, but Oakland hit a lot of home runs, scored a lot of runs and won a lot of games in September, almost certainly stunning anyone who had them finishing under for the year. A 17-7 finish to the season allowed them to go over by a game and a half.